High Probability IB breakouts form when there is convergence in correlated instruments AND / OR Internals make new high / low. Either one should exist for IB breakout to be high probability.
Here is an example of IBB when Internals where showing downside and making lower lows.
IBB breakout on ES. NQ did not breakout at this point BUT Internals, both TICK ans SPD made lower lows. This made it higher probability.
SPD made lower lows along with TICKS, indicating the downside bias.
Here is an example for a FAILED IB breakout for multiple reasons
1) Divergence in SPD. SPD did not make lower lows with IB breakout.
2) Divergence in NQ.
ES Failed IB breakout. Spreads and NQ had divergence, not supporting downside.
Divergence in SPD during IB breakout.
Divergence in NQ, Indicating a failed breakout.